A majority of Americans say they think Donald Trump is going to win a second term, according to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, even as the President’s reviews on issues other than the economy remain largely negative.
The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election, 41% feel he will lose.
Americans are slightly more apt to say Trump will win now than they were to say Barack Obama would win a second term in May 2011, in a survey conducted just after the death of Osama bin Laden (50% thought Obama would win in that poll).
The new numbers on Trump are a reversal from December, when a narrow majority of 51% said they thought Trump would lose his bid for re-election.
The shift over that time comes mostly among those who disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency.
In December, 81% in that group said they thought the President would lose, and now, that’s fallen to 67%.
At the same time, the share who approve of the President and think he will win has held mostly steady (88% now vs. 85% in December). The dislike those disapprovers hold for Trump is palpable in the poll.
Asked to explain in their own words why they disapprove of Trump, Trump’s behavior is a central reason. T
he most frequently cited responses are lying (13%), racism (11%), incompetence (11%) and not acting presidential (7%). Immigration, named by 7%, is the only specific issue that merits mention by 5% or more.
Those who approve of the way Trump is handling his job as President instead focus on his accomplishments and on issues. About a quarter (26%) cite the economy as the main reason they back him, 12% say it’s because he has kept his promises, 9% say that he’s getting things done or accomplishing more than other presidents, 8% mention improved unemployment ratings and 5% point to his policies on the border.
The economy remains the bright spot of Trump’s presidency in public opinion. Overall, 7 in 10 say the economy is in good shape, about the same as in March, and 52% say they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, down 4 points since April.
This poll marks a new high point in the Trump presidency for the share who feel the economy is in “very good” shape, 28% say so, and though that’s not significantly larger than the 26% who felt that way in March, it is the best mark since 2000.
Trump’s second-best approval rating in the poll comes on an economy-connected measure: helping the middle class. On that score, 44% approve of the President, 49% disapprove.
While still negative, that’s an improvement compared with the last time CNN surveyed on this question in August of the first year of his presidency, when 39% approved.Foreign trade earns the President fewer accolades, with 41% saying they approve while 47% disapprove.
The poll was in the field when the President threatened new tariffs on imports from Mexico in response to illegal border crossings from that country.
While those figures are not significantly different from the President’s approval ratings on this topic in December, his approval rating on foreign trade has grown 9 points over that time among a core constituency: Whites who do not have college degrees.