The west African nations of Ghana and Nigeria are expected to be among the world’s fastest growing economies in 2012, according to an emailed research note by Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital.
Robertson’s data comprises consensus forecasts and the latest estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures.
In 2011, Ghana was the fastest growing economy from a total of 43 markets included in Renaissance’s graphs. This growth was largely off the back of Ghana’s new oil industry. Nigeria had the 6th highest GDP growth, ahead of India. In 2012, Ghana is again expected to show the strongest GDP growth, with Nigeria in 4th position.
However, next year Ghana’s growth will slow down, while Nigeria is likely to remain in 4th position. “Finally Ghana shifts out of overdrive and gives Asia a chance to shine a little – though personally I doubt China will be growing at 9% in 2013. Around 7% to 8% looks more realistic, if only due to base effects,” notes Robertson.
In 2013, South Africa, the continent’s largest economy, is likely to grow faster than Australia. “It might be a good time for the South Africans who emigrated to Australia to sell up their inflated property prices, sell the overvalued AUD and move back to South Africa,” says Robertson.
“A lot of the emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa economies we cover are doing an awful lot better than most give them credit for. Helped by Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Ghana, they take two to three places in the top 5 in 2011-13. South Africa consistently beats development market commodity exporters,” says Robertson.